A summit with leaders of the (then) negotiating states of the
Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP). Pictured,
from left, are Naoto Kan (Japan), Nguyễn Minh Triết (Vietnam), Julia Gillard (Australia), Sebastián Piñera (Chile), Lee Hsien Loong (Singapore), Barack Obama (United States), John Key (New Zealand), Hassanal Bolkiah (Brunei), Alan García (Peru), and Muhyiddin Yassin (Malaysia). Six of these leaders represent countries that are currently negotiating to join the group. Pic: Wikimedia Commons
Q: What are the consequences of no TPP?
PM: Your standing goes down with many countries around the world. Your opponents as well as your friends will say, "You talked about the strategic re-balance, you talked about developing your relationships. You can move aircraft carriers around. But what are the aircraft carriers in support of"? It has to be deeper economic and broad relationships. You do not do things which the Chinese do. The Chinese go around with lollipops in their pockets. They have aid, they have friendship deals, they build you a Prime Minister’s office or President’s office, or Parliament House or foreign ministry. For them, trade is an extension of their foreign policy.
You do not do these retail items. The one big thing which you have done is to settle the TPP, which Obama has done. It shows that you are serious, that you are prepared to deepen the relationship and that you are putting a stake here which you will have an interest in upholding. Now, let’s say you cannot deliver on the TPP. After you have gotten Vietnam to join, after you have gotten Japan to join, after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made very difficult arrangements on agriculture, cars, sugar and dairy. Now you say, "I walk away, that I do not believe in this deal." How can anybody believe in you anymore?
It is not just on trade, even on strategic issues. The key thing in Northeast Asia is North Korea. They are unpredictable, they are developing their nuclear capabilities and their missiles. You do not want the South Koreans to do that, you do not want the Japanese to do that. What is the restraint on them? It is your credibility as an ally and as a deterrent. I do not think failing to ratify the TPP will strengthen that at all, or help Mr. Abe, who has gone out on a limb to support this and is in the process of ratifying it right now.
Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong on the U.S. Election, Free Trade and Why Government Isn’t a Startup
"Maybe Americans feel they don’t need the rest of the world anymore"
By virtue of its location—on the mouth of the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, through which one-third of the world’s seaborne traffic passes daily — Singapore has always been a country that punches well above its weight on the geopolitical and economic stage. It’s a country of many cultures and languages, and one that is a staunch ally of the U.S. while maintaining strong trading ties with a rising China.
That makes Lee Hsien Loong, Singpore’s Prime Minister and the son of its founder Lee Kuan Yew, a good person to speak to if you want to understand how Asia works. TIME foreign-affairs columnist Ian Bremmer had a chance recently to sit down with Lee in Singapore. The full transcript of their conversation — which touches on U.S. politics, China’s reforms and how to run a country in the age of automation — is reprinted below:
Q: Let me ask you a couple of questions about the perception of the U.S. election in Singapore, because I am very interested in that. Let us assume Hillary [Clinton] is going to win, I feel very confident about that. Let us assume that Trump does not do significant damage after the elections are over. How much damage do you think has been done concretely through this 18-month electoral process?
PM: In every American election, crazy things are said. Positions are taken which the winners try very hard to forget afterwards. George Bush Sr. said “read my lips” and regretted it. All American candidates who won have before winning been very harsh on China, and after winning, much more restrained in their approach towards China. On trade too, that has been true for some time. But this time it has been so nasty and harsh that I think Hillary, if she wins, will have a lot of things to unspeak which she will find very difficult to do. I think TPP [the Trans-Pacific Partnership] will be a casualty if it is not settled by January.
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