Mahathir the Riddler and The High Speed Rail Project

Updates:
And so the flip-floping continues on from M'sia...

19 July 2018: TODAY - In U-turn, Dr Mahathir says Malaysia to negotiate deferment of HSR with Singapore 

When asked by reporters on whether there are options to defer the project or reduce the cost, he replied: “At the moment when we look at the financial situation of the country, we thought that we couldn’t go ahead with that.”

"The problem is that if we just unilaterally discard the agreement, we have to pay a very high compensation." 

Having studied the contract, it was decided that “we will have to do it at a later date or we may have to reduce the price”, Dr Mahathir added. Read more here.

18 July 2018: New Straits Times - HSR not entirely off the table, fate lies in upcoming discussion between Malaysia and Singapore 

 "We have not excluded the possibility of the project going on, but are not making any suggestions unless there is a consensus from both countries.” Economic Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin told reporters at the Dewan Rakyat lobby. Read more here.

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Here’s a summary of the HSR headlines from a Malaysian News/Media portal – The Star Online, from 24 Jan 2017 to 9 July 2018. (Latest news at bottom)

Read them and see for yourself if you can decide what Mahathir/Malaysia really, really wants to do with the HSR project.

24 Jan 2017: The Star Online - Mahathir opposes HSR project
Citing financial constraints, the former prime minister (Mahathir), who is chairman of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, said the HSR contract signed between Malaysia and Singapore may not be a done deal if the Opposition comes to power. We need to do a study whether it is feasible or not because we don’t have the money and we have to borrow money, and that is not something the Government can bear at this moment. We have to know whether we really need this HSR or not,” he told The Sunday Times in an interview. Read more here. 

28 May 2018: The Star Online - Mahathir to drop high-speed rail project with Singapore: FT
"We need to do away with some of the unnecessary projects, for example the high-speed rail, which is going to cost us RM110bn ($28bn) and will not earn us a single cent. That will be dropped," Mahathir told the Financial Times. "We have an agreement with Singapore. We have to talk with Singapore about dropping that project," he said, according to Reuters. Read more here. 

2 Jun 2018: The Star Online - Guan Eng on HSR: 'You can get something... for half the price.'
Asked if the economic benefits outweighed the cost of the rail link, Lim replied: “Is it worth it? You can get something for cheaper, for half the price.” Read more here.

12 Jun 2018: The Star Online - HSR project postponed, not scrapped, Dr M tells Japanese media“We cannot say we will never have high-speed rail (HSR) in Malaysia. What we can do is we can postpone the project because it is far too costly at this moment.” After being sworn in as prime minister, he had announced on May 28 that Malaysia will be dropping the HSR project with Singapore, citing it as an “unnecessary project”. However, in his interview with Nikkei Asian Review, Dr Mahathir commented that the Singapore HSR project is merely postponed. “We actually postponed the implementation of that project.” Read more here.

15 Jun 2018: The Star Online - Govt will consider reviving HSR project in the future
Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng: “As far as the HSR is concerned, it's scrapped for now as announced by the Prime Minister but in the future, that is something that we want to discuss with the Government” Read more here.

9 Jul 2018: The Star Online - Singapore not told of HSR status but knows what Malaysia wants
Mahathir: "We have not given them full notice yet but they know what we want to do."Watch the interview on YouTube here. 

Video source: The Star Online

Mahathir doing what he does best - Being vague

Video source: The Star Online

Here are some unbelievable quotes from the media interview.

"Decisions are not so easily made. When we make a decision and announce it, the market reacts negatively. The market apparently likes to be told lies about how good everything is so they will give you good marks. But if we tell them we have discovered a lot of wrongdoings, they react by running away with the money, they stop investing and all that. But in fact what we are doing now is to ensure that this country is financially run properly."

"So when we make an announcement, we have people who react negatively. So that's why we have to be very careful about what we say."

"As far as the Singapore Government is concerned, we have not given them full notice yet, but they know what we want to do"

"I think you should read your own press..." (when asked what M'sia wanted to do about the HSR) 

This is all bullshit and blatant political showmanship to publicly pressure S'pore as well as seek out nationalist political support by making S'pore the common evil enemy of all M'sians.

There is no big mystery or some genius strategy of Mahathir at work.

This is exactly what he did  during the 1998 to 2003 "package deal" negotiations when he was last PM. When he did not get what he wanted, he tried to apply public pressure on S'pore by making misleading public statements. S'pore then had no choice but to set the record straight by releasing the official correspondences between the two PMs. (See here for a summary of the 1998-2003 negotiations)


The most plausible explanation for Mahathir's apparent reluctance to officially communicate to the SG Govt about M'sia's decision to cancel the HSR project, is Mahathir knows very well that once he does that, S'pore will have indisputable proof that M'sia was the one who first initiated to officially cancel the HSR project, and hence M'sia becomes liable not just for S'pore's losses but potentially for all other involved parties' losses.

If M'sia's coffers are really as empty as Mahathir says, do you think he would dare to risk incurring the cancellation's potentially huge liabilities?

For all we know, just the very notion of officially canceling the HSR project and becoming liable for losses may well push M'sia right into the realm of national bankruptcy.

This is just "wayang kulit" (shadow shadow puppet play) put up by Mahathir to see if S'pore will blink and cave in first on officially canceling the HSR project.

If S'pore does so, and falls into Mahathir's trap, then M'sia would have a plausible reason/excuse to deny any liabilities for the cancellation, citing that S'pore was actually the party who first officially communicated the project's cancellation whereas all M'sia did was merely do media interviews, press releases only.

Unfortunately for Mahathir, and M'sia, there is no happy ending to this wayang kulit. He must be senile to hope S'pore would fall into his clumsy trap.

Read more here:

The Star Online: Dr M: Singapore not told of HSR status, but it knows what Malaysia wants (10 July 2018)

TODAY: Singapore 'knows what we want to do' on HSR issue, says Malaysian PM Mahathir (10 July 2018)

Lee Kuan Yew's words on relations with Malaysia

Ever since Mahathir is back as the PM of M'sia, relations between S'pore and M'sia have seemingly taken a turn for the worse.

First there's M'sia's flip-flopping over the High-Speed Rail project, being conducted over the media instead of direct Govt-to-Govt talks.

Then now the apparent revival of one of Mahathir's favourite pet peeve - the Water Agreements.

Should S'poreans panic?

If you were old enough to have known about his antics tactics as the 4th PM from 1981 to 2003 in dealing with S'pore, you would have recognize that the current situation is very similar to what he was doing when he was the 4th PM.

We have to remember that Mahathir is an extremely shrewd politician who has made a come-back as PM again despite being out of Govt for more than 15 years. If anything, he is a master at using rhetoric to shape public opinion for his own purposes.

So let Mahathir rant on and on about his unhappiness with whatever deals.

Notice that he only rants to the media. Yet the S'pore Govt is still waiting for official communication on the HSR project. So efficient. M'sia Boleh ya?

We just have to recognize that that's just one of his antics tactics to cast S'pore in an unfavourable light to M'sians, and make us a convenient bogeyman/scapegoat/whipping boy to pin whatever policy failings of his administration; to rile up and enlarge his political support base, and to manipulate public opinion to pressure and bully S'pore.

My opinion is that S'poreans should just chill.

Our position on the High-Speed Rail project, the Water Agreements and whatever other bilateral dealing we have with M'sia have been made very clear by the SG Govt.

Mahathir knows his hands are tied by the agreements. Should Mahathir decide to unilaterally change or cancel any agreements, he is well aware that the consequences of such an action would be much more damaging to M'sia than to S'pore.

While S'pore may suffer some short-term losses/pain, Mahathir knows that he would have effectively destroyed all of M'sia's credibility and trustworthiness in the eyes of the world. No one would dare to invest or do business with M'sia after that.

So let's all just be calm, carry on and let the SG Govt settle lah. World Cup is on now leh..

Lee Kuan Yew's quote reference: From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965-2000, Volume 2 (See here)